THE BACKSTOP TO BREXIT?

It's that man again!

One of the key lines being continually pushed by the Brexiters is that the backstop (draft emergency provisions to ensure no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland) is fundamentally undemocratic and it has to go. Oddly enough it's not perceived as undemocratic in Northern Ireland - where pretty much every elected politician is in favour of it. Political opposition from within Northern Ireland to the Brexiters position may be one of the reasons why successive Conservative governments have dragged their feet when it comes to helping to restore devolved government in Northern Ireland that and their parties on-going cash induced relationship with the DUP - who themselves have their own reasons for avoiding local democratic scrutiny.

If nothing else this position in relation to the Irish backstop has exposed a few hard truths. It's very clear if not obvious that Brexiters (many of whom hail from a particularly narrow and actually quite unrepresentative narrow elite) have never had any meaningful or realistic understanding of Ireland - North or South or other matters. Not that long ago I can recall overhearing conversations (in another place for want of a better phrase) openly and genuinely bemoaning the fact that Ireland had left the UK and that Hong Kong had to be (sadly) returned to China, etc. This sort of thing, if nothing else displays a lack of understanding of recent and not so recent history, and is perhaps this is the backstop too Brexit. 

What's certainly true is that Ireland never appeared on this elites radar before or during or initially after the referendum campaign - one of the possible  consequences of a return to a hard border is the undermining of the peace process. Then late and very deeply missed Steffan Lewis flagged this up some years ago. Looking dispassionately at the Conservative and Unionist Party's often tortuous relationship with the Irish political dimension in these islands - it's clear that they have been happy from time to time to play the unionist card - with scant of little thought toward the short, medium or longer term consequences - particularly for Northern Ireland or the rest of us.

It should be clear to most people by now that if Boris Johnston had a clear Conservative majority in Westminster and was not dependent upon the support of the DUP then he would have been pushing even harder for a No deal - regardless of the consequences for Northern Ireland and the rest of us. None of this bodes well for the future of devolution in these islands, if the Conservatives don't understand Northern Ireland, are surprisingly indifferent to Scotland and genuinely don't even perceive Cymru / Wales, then they are very different in outlook to their pre 1979 conservative predecessors who could be said to have spoken for the Union as a whole.  

The Brexiter Conservatives are perhaps for the first time in the modern era (or at least since the early 17th century) quite openly focused on England (and its a particularly unrepresentative narrow view of England at that) or perhaps a Greater England. The problem is we are no longer living in the 17th century - the world and these islands have changed. At a very basic level the failure to understand the complexities of situation in Ireland is quite revealing. Unfortunately it masks (barely) what I believe to be a complete failure to accept or understand devolution (or a deliberate choice) in its varied formats across these islands. It gives a focus perhaps to the quietly as yet unarticulated politics and vision of the UK post Brexit - a unitary centralised non devolved state - which is not good for the rest of us on these islands. 

DEVO ROLLBACK?

When a failed Conservative leader starts talking about reviewing devolution and strengthening the Union at a time when BREXT threatens to deliver a rollback of powers then any one who believes in devoting powers to the nations and reigns of these islands should be concerned. It's a bit like foxes taking a position on chicken's rights and hen coop security - it's time to sit up and take notice. 

Despite the spin and the claims to the contrary, devolution is not Teresa May’s legacy, her legacy is political chaos and economic uncertainty, and a use of BREXIT to attempt to roll back devolution and strip away powers from Wales and Scotland and to undermine the devolved institutions and constitutional settlement within these islands. As late as the 2005 Westminster general election the Conservatives (and Teresa May) were still publicly uncommitted to devolution for Cymru / Wales. 

The Conservatives have never accepted or respected devolution - and would I suspect would given the opportunity weaken if not abolish devolution in Cymru / Wales and actively work to weaken and undermine it in Scotland. They have also played fast and loose with the political process in Northern Ireland - something that threatens to undermine the hard won peace process. 

For a conservative leader to talk about constitutional diversity is particularly rich. The soon to be former Prime Minister is correct in one key area, the fact that some Westminster government departments have failed to recognise the reality of devolution. The Conservative party, under Cameron and May has reluctantly paid lip service to devolution, but, many suspect that it will actively work to weaken the powers of the devolved governments post BREXIT. 

Simply revitalising the Scottish and Welsh offices is no longer an option, it’s perhaps merely new post Brexit colonial window dressing for seeking to undermine the devolved institutions. What's needed is a single ministry for the nations and regions, which could in terms of status match the Home Office at cabinet level, and rationalise the relationships between the Westminster departments and the other devolved portions of these islands.

None of this is new, back in 2015, after David Cameroon, won his first Westminster majority, and before he messily ended his premiership over BREXIT, there was, at least from this end of the M4 / A55, a faint brief whiff of what could best be described as devo rollback in the air. As the then unconstrained All Con Conservative government settled in at Westminster, what's was in it for Cymru / Wales - potentially nothing good. 

Scotland, as far as the Westminster unionists may have been concerned may be quietly (and honestly) be perceived as a lost cause (perhaps a literal case of 'when' rather than 'if' in relation to independence). Cymru / Wales on the other hand may yet offer far more constitutional room to meddle with, to tinker with or even rollback parts of our deeply flawed constitutional settlement - something that could take us back to pre 1601 and 'England and Wales'.

Here in Cymru / Wales we have all seen the Westminster wobble in relation to the commitment to complete the electrification of the Great Western line to Swansea, the failure to develop the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon, and the threat to cancel promised public borrowing powers after the proposed M4 Relief road was dropped. Our constitutional settlement, such as it is is, even to the disinterested, appears deeply flawed, second rate and simply unfair, not coming remotely close to either Scotland or Northern Ireland when it comes to powers which could be used to influence and shape economic matters. 

The Conservative Party appears to be appealing to the type of nationalism that has seen UKIP grow in the past, and more recently the Brexit Party - it has little place of concern for Cymru / Wales. The ongoing Conservative leadership contest offers little hope or expectation to Cymru / Wales. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are clearly no allies to Wales. Boris Johnson is on record stating that Westminster is an English Parliament. Our nation, is at best an afterthought and more than likely an irritation to whoever wins the Tory leadership contest. 

A SHAPELESS TRANSFER OF POWER

A shapeless transfer of power from nominated successor to nominated successor within the folds of Cymru / Wales's equivalent of the old unreconstructed barely awake local branch of CPSU (Labour in Wales) is unlikely to encourage any optimism on the part of observers of our fledgling democracy post BREXIT. A former Plaid candidate once to me that to perform the same action time and time again is one thing, but, to do it and to expect a different result is simply foolish.  

To expect Labour in Wales to shake of its self indulgent lethargy (especially having spent years redefining inertia) is similarly foolish. Simply waiting for a Labour government with a majority in Westminster to deliver for Wales (let alone stand up for Cymru / Wales) is just not going to happen. Labour in Westminster (the vast majority of Labour in Wales MP's included) are simply not interested in our national interests and concerns. 

As has been noted elsewhere Kier Hardie and others may (once) have believed in home rule (for Wales and Scotland) as a means of avoiding the bureaucratic centralism that characterised much of the European socialist parties of that time. That, however, that's not what we have ended up with, once Labour fell in lust with the trappings and trimmings of power at Westminster  (in 1824) the dead hand of centralism (and party interest) settled in as the party ethos running through the Labour Party at all levels in our nation and across the various component parts of the UK state.

Labour with a vast majority in 1945 offered, five modest promises: 

• A Secretary of State 
• A separate Welsh broadcasting corporation 
• An end to the forced transfer of labour to England
• A north - South Welsh trunk road
• A central body to plan and develop the Welsh economy 

None of them were delivered between 1945 and 1951 even when Labour in Westminster had a vast majority of seats. We have been here more than once - Labour in Wales promises to deliver much for Cymru / Wales in Westminster - with a massive majorities (in 1997 and 2001) they did not deliver for Cymru / Wales. Post BREXIT (if we ever get that far) if the Labour Party in Westminster wins a majority, our national interests will be the least of their concerns. 

Labour in Wales's unnecessary hasty and craven sycophantic repeal of the Continuity Bill (carefully drafted and presented by the late and greatly missed Steffan Lewis) which would have provided a degree of protection in the face of what almost certainly appears to be a post BREXIT attempt to re-centralise power at Westminster should not have been a surprise. This action (not repeated in Scotland) should open people's eyes to the reality of the current Labour administration's (and leaders) bland ambitions or lack of them and is a clear indicator that Labour in Wales remains deeply Brit centralist in nature.

I have little doubt that the re-centralising of Britain will be attempted via combination of undermining / ignoring the existing devolved institutions and seeking to repatriate as many (read all in the case of Cymru / Wales if they can get away with it) of those functions that had drifted to an EU over the previous 50 years.

Now thanks to the newly installed Labour in Wales First Minister we now have no Continuity Bill to even begin to provide a measure of protection from a House of Jaw that appears to be increasingly focused Post BREXIT on re-centralising a Post BREXIT Britain focused on Westminster (and the South Easts needs and interests) at our (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and relatively distant (at least from Westminster) Northern and South Western England). 

Post BREXIT here in Wales we must find a way to create an open future rather than seek to live in closed nostalgia dominated imitation of the past cynically recast as our future by Labour and Conservative. Those unionist politicians in Wales are too timid, too ambitious to get their noses into the Westminster trough, genuinely limited in outlook or simply utterly bereft of any vision to try to do anything else but repeat the mistakes of our past.  We will never fix our society and re-boot our economy by simply reverting to being Poor humble and obedient West Britons. 

THE OLD CENTRALIST ENEMY

The recent Old / former New Labour conference might suggest that Labour has got its mojo back and the party now believes that it can win the next Westminster general election. The bearded one has described himself as a democratic socialist - his unionism (not the Trade variety) is never mentioned. 

To be blunt the articulated vision of a democratic socialist UK which does not have a place for our national interest(s) which don't feature on the centralising statist agenda, that’s like something out of the mid to late 1970’s. The problem is that the bearded one's vision / version is neither that democratic or that socialist, at least from a Welsh or Scottish perspective, and neither is is particularly original, visionary  or new - it also never delivered last time, so why should it this time around?

If it were possible to remove the Scottish parliament and our as yet not fully fledged embryonic parliament, I am sure that JC and his Brit Nat centralist ilk would not hesitate for a moment. They would happily lay down their rhetorical lives for Ireland, or Palestine or other deserving blue water causes whilst quietly pining for a centralised British republic; and maintaining an unhealthy patronising metropolitan scorn for any political aspirations aspired too by any of the other nations that inhabit this often rain swept island archipelago.

Yet these so called democratic socialists remain strangely silent when it comes to matters relating to Wales, Scotland or Cornwall or even England for that matter, along with displaying spectacular perhaps Islington or metropolitan centric ignorance or dismissive patronising contempt (worthy of comparison of the rhetoric used by some Russian nationalists with their patronising dismissal of Ukraine and other historic nations in and around Russia) of any and all devolved matters outside of the M25.

Despite the beardy spin, this is the same old centralist enemy - with the same old rebranded statist solutions - which outside of the short term spectacularly failed to deliver for us last time. We, in Wales, have been here before. The centralists have promised much and delivered little that was lasting, save for a faint echos or faint ghosts of long departed industrial and regional development. 

Don’t get me wrong, ending the ideologically driven idiocy that has reduced our railways to a poor dividend profit driven service would / will be a good thing. The problem is that Westminster can not be trusted to leave any rail service to run itself. 

I would prefer the not for dividend profit but independent of day to day, week to week, month to month interference from Westminster, but democratically accountable and democratically responsive model to any Westminster accountable / controlled reborn version of British rail. Personally I would prefer public sector institutions to be run on a not for dividend profit model and firmly at arms length from Westminster.

Our nation, as one of the poorer parts of the European Union, will have received more than £5 billion in so-called structural funds by 2020. The funding from Brussels has been used for a wide variety of diverse infrastructure projects from the Ponty Lido, Swansea University's Bay Campus, the Heads of the Valleys road, Harbour Way link road and the National Sailing Academy at Pwllheli. 

EU funding has also been used to fund educational and training courses and programmes via our Universities and colleges. I still think that the Welsh government should carry out a fully comprehensive review of just exactly on what and how the money has been spent along with examining in detail how the funds were spent and what the end results were - before any future funds are thrown at any potential problems and projects. 

One of the consequences of BREXIT is that this source of funding will cease. The Conservatives have said the new Shared Prosperity Fund is intended to reduce inequalities across the four UK nations. Thats if you believe them, especially considering that they blocked regional aid to Wales in the 1980’s and early 1990’s and considering that one of the underlying feature of the UK has always been that of it's heavy handed unsubtle centralism. 

This centralism has never really gone away despite the roll out of differing levels of devolution to redress the democratic deficit in the late 1990’s.  The civil service, at least in England and Wales, appears to continue to behave as if devolution has not happened. Until there is a Wales based Cymru / Wales focused civil service this state of affairs is likely to continue. 

Some twenty years down the line of all the devolved nations and provinces Scotland still has the best devolutionary deal, followed in second place by Northern Ireland - even in its current suspended state. Wales trails in a poor third - with  a relatively weak devolutionary settlement - something that suits the majority of Labour in Wales representatives in Cardiff Bay and beyond - who lie awake at night dreaming of Labour in Westminster winning and riding to the rescue. 

It’s important to remember that the last time they were in power at Westminster between 1997 and 2010.  Labour had a sizeable majority and pretty much the power to do whatever they wanted to do. Labour in Westminster didn’t come riding to the rescue then, so don't expect them to do so next time. 

Post Brexit both the Conservatives and the party formerly known as New Labour will eagerly grasp the opportunity to build their vision of a new centralist aggressively Brit Nationalist union. The Brit Nat drum will be thoroughly beaten to drum up Brit Nat sentiment and sentimentality / nostalgic pap to drown out any criticism - constructive or otherwise. We should remember that direct Westminster-rule failed to deliver for much of Wales (beyond the shirt-term) for most of my lifetime. 

Even before I was born the great hopes of the future proved to GD unsustainable beyond the medium term - British Nylon Sunners (in Mamhilad, north of Pontypool (gone), BSC / RTB Llanwern (a remnant), East Moors, on the eastern fringe of Cardiff (gone), etc. Post BREXIT it appears that things are only going to get worse as Whitehall ‘Britocrats’ scramble to protect the City of London at all costs, while our manufacturers and exporters are left to sink, swim or go under.

The post BREXIT domestic settlement offers from the Brit Nat perspective of Westminster a real opportunity to actively work to roll back, weaken or undermine the devolutionary settlements within the UK. Certainly relatively recent developments in relation to repatriated 'powers' being returned from Brussels to Westminster have shown how important it is that we actively resist Westminster’s attempts to roll back devolution through the Withdrawal Bill. Plaid's attempts lead by Steffan Lewis in relation to the Continuity Bill were a vital step to ensure Westminster does not ride rough shod over our hard-won right to run our own affairs.

Now it's not just a case of moaning about the incompetence and injustice of what's gone on in previous years, under previous governments (whether Labour (New, Old or revamped), Conservative or Conservative - Liberal Democrat - that's just what has gone before - that's just history. The days of simply rattling the bars of the cage and occasionally doing well in the odd are over - it's time to change or rewrite the rules of the game. At the most basic level we need devolution to actually deliver for our nation - economically, socially and politically. 

As I have said previously the nation can no more be half devolved than a nation can be half free. We need the devolutionary full measure and the tools to do the job and to deliver economic change for our country. We desperately need to engender the politics of hope and a real belief that things can change and get better. 

The quiet Westminster dogmas of the past have failed us - they did not deliver last time and rebadged / revamped by the bearded one they are incapable of delivering in the future. We urgently need real change, it's time for a real new deal, it's time to be radical, because only radical solutions are going to deliver for our people and our nation.